Soil degradation poses critical challenges to sustainable food production and environmental stability. In this study, we integrate simulations from 18 global climate models under two combined SSP-RCP scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) with land use fractions from the Land Use Harmonization (LUH2) dataset to assess future soil degradation risks across Europe. We adopt a machine learning framework to link a Soil Degradation Proxy (an index integrating multiple soil health indicators including erosion rate, pH, electrical conductivity, and soil organic carbon; SDP) to topography, soil characteristics, climatic factors, and land use practices, enabling projections of how these factors collectively influence future soil degradation trends.
Our projections indicate that under the higher-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, approximately 54% of European soil observation sites could face increased vulnerability to degradation by the far future (2071–2100). This heightened degradation risk is especially evident in northern European regions, such as Estonia and Latvia, where SDP may rise by up to 16%, largely influenced by changing climate conditions. In contrast, southern regions of Europe (e.g., Spain and Italy) could experience a decrease in SDP, suggesting potential improvements in soil health tied to evolving land use practices.
By combining climate projections, land use practices, and soil type, this work provides new insights into future trends and patterns of soil degradation across Europe. These findings support the urgent need for developing targeted soil management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate and land use change on soil health conditions.