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UID:pretalx-global-workshop-2026-QF38UE@pretalx.earthmonitor.org
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Amsterdam:20261007T161500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Amsterdam:20261007T163000
DESCRIPTION:Abstract\nFlash droughts are increasingly recognized as a disti
 nct class of hydroclimatic extremes marked by rapid soil-moisture depletio
 n over only a few weeks. Because of their abrupt onset\, these events can 
 severely affect agricultural production\, terrestrial ecosystems\, and reg
 ional water resources before conventional drought indicators fully capture
  their development. Recent drought episodes across Europe have reinforced 
 the need to better understand how flash drought behaviour may evolve under
  continued climate warming. Yet substantial uncertainty remains\, partly b
 ecause many previous assessments rely on meteorological indicators or sing
 le datasets that do not adequately represent the subsurface soil-moisture 
 processes governing rapid drought emergence.\nThis study proposes to inves
 tigate the future evolution of flash drought characteristics across Europe
  using root-zone soil moisture simulations from a multi-model ensemble of 
 global hydrological models\, including WaterGAP\, H08\, and CWatM\, forced
  by bias-adjusted CMIP6 climate projections. Daily soil-moisture outputs w
 ill be aggregated to pentad scale (5-day averages) to reduce high-volatili
 ty while preserving the rapid depletion signals associated with flash drou
 ght onset. Root-zone soil moisture will then be transformed into grid-spec
 ific climatological percentiles\, enabling a temporally and spatially cons
 istent identification of flash drought events across models and time perio
 ds. A key methodological contribution of this study is the integration of 
 pentad-scale root-zone soil moisture percentiles with a multi-model hydrol
 ogical ensemble\, enabling a consistent and process-relevant assessment of
  future flash drought dynamics across Europe.\nUsing this framework\, the 
 study will assess potential changes in flash drought frequency\, duration\
 , severity\, and onset speed under historical conditions and future projec
 tions for SSP1-2.6\, SSP2-4.5\, and SSP5-8.5. The analysis is intended to 
 advance understanding of future rapid drought development and to support d
 rought risk assessment\, climate adaptation planning\, and early-warning s
 trategies across Europe.\n\n\n\nKeywords: Flash drought\; Root-zone soil m
 oisture\; Global hydrological models\; CMIP6\; Europe.
DTSTAMP:20260624T084207Z
LOCATION:Room 18
SUMMARY:Emerging Flash Drought Risk across Europe: Insights from Multi-Mode
 l Root-Zone Soil Moisture Projections - VAIBHAV KUMAR
URL:https://pretalx.earthmonitor.org/global-workshop-2026/talk/QF38UE/
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