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UID:pretalx-global-workshop-2026-MRHJ3P@pretalx.earthmonitor.org
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Amsterdam:20261008T161500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Amsterdam:20261008T163000
DESCRIPTION:Hydroclimatic forcing of similar magnitude can produce contrast
 ing hydrologic responses within the same basin. Here\, we investigate how 
 soil-moisture memory (SMM) regulates the translation of atmospheric anomal
 ies into basin-scale hydrologic response across the Po River Basin. To add
 ress this question\, we developed an open and reproducible Earth-observati
 on workflow based on a multi-source data cube that integrates Sentinel-1 o
 bservations with hydroclimatic forcing represented by the Precipitation–
 Evapotranspiration Anomaly Index (PEAI)\, derived from HYPER-P precipitati
 on and GLEAM evapotranspiration for 2016–2022. This framework enables as
 sessment of how SMM varies across land-surface types and during major hydr
 oclimatic transition episodes. \n\nThe analysis reveals marked contrasts a
 cross the basin. Irrigated agricultural areas exhibit the strongest memory
 \, with median persistence close to 3 weeks and low instability (~0.19)\, 
 whereas changed surfaces show weaker and more volatile behavior\, with per
 sistence of about 1.7 weeks and instability approaching 0.24. Non-irrigate
 d agricultural areas define a distinct intermediate regime\, characterized
  by lower persistence and higher instability than irrigated areas\, but le
 ss volatility than changed surfaces. At the basin scale\, major forcing ep
 isodes affect approximately 80–90% of the basin\, yet response hotspots 
 typically occupy only 20–40%\, indicating that atmospheric anomalies are
  not expressed uniformly but are selectively filtered by antecedent basin 
 state and land-surface conditions. \n\nEvent-based analysis further shows 
 that the hydrologic expression of forcing reversal depends strongly on ant
 ecedent SMM conditions. A continuous 28-day drought–flood abrupt alterna
 tion (DFAA) sequence in May–June 2020\, automatically detected from the 
 2016–2022 record\, includes a major drought-to-flood transition (DTF) fr
 om 21 May to 4 June and a major flood-to-drought transition (FTD) from 4 t
 o 18 June. Although the two phases exhibit near-equivalent PEAI amplitudes
 \, reversing from -1.195 to 2.176 during the DTF phase (Δ = 3.371) and fr
 om 2.176 to -1.250 during the subsequent FTD phase (Δ = 3.426)\, the resu
 lting basin-scale responses are asymmetrical\, indicating that forcing rev
 ersal of similar magnitude is not translated into equivalent hydrologic ex
 pression. These results indicate that hydrologic response to forcing rever
 sal depends more strongly on antecedent soil-moisture memory than on forci
 ng amplitude alone. \n\nAdditional comparisons among automatically detecte
 d FTD events with similar forcing trajectories reinforce this interpretati
 on. Two major transitions\, detected on 5 March 2020 and 13 May 2021\, sho
 w comparable forcing duration and amplitude but differ substantially in ti
 ming\, coherence\, and post-transition evolution. These contrasts are cons
 istent with distinct memory regimes: the 2020 event is associated with low
  persistence (~0.20) and sustained high instability (~0.75)\, whereas the 
 2021 event combines very low persistence at transition (~0.13) with rapid 
 recovery toward higher persistence and lower instability thereafter. Overa
 ll\, the results show that antecedent soil-moisture memory and land-surfac
 e conditions exert a strong control on how hydroclimatic forcing is transl
 ated into basin-scale hydrologic response.
DTSTAMP:20260624T084419Z
LOCATION:Aula Magna
SUMMARY:Soil-Moisture Memory as a Regulator of Hydrologic Response in the P
 o River Basin (Italy) - imane serbouti
URL:https://pretalx.earthmonitor.org/global-workshop-2026/talk/MRHJ3P/
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