Open-Earth-Monitor Global Workshop 2026

Forest and grassland restoration constitutes a central objective of global initiatives, including the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. Nevertheless, the synergistic mechanisms and quantitative linkages between enhanced restoration potential and improved ecosystem services (ESs) remain insufficiently understood. In this study, we developed the Forest and Grassland Restoration Potential Achievement Efficiency (FGRPAE). By integrating remote sensing data, ecosystem service assessments, and nonlinear modeling, we constructed a comprehensive framework to evaluate restoration benefits in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), a representative region of large-scale ecological restoration. This framework systematically investigates the long-term spatiotemporal dynamics of FGRPAE, as well as its interactive patterns with ecosystem services and underlying nonlinear response mechanisms. The results show that FGRPAE increased at an average annual rate of 0.0083, corresponding to a cumulative growth of 53.73%. During 2000-2010, FGRPAE increased at an annual rate of 0.0096, yielding a cumulative increase of 32.45%. In contrast, from 2010 to 2020, the growth rate decelerated to 0.0063 per year, with a total increase of 16.02%, approximately 49.52% of the increase observed during 2000-2010. Concurrently, the proportion of areas exhibiting spatial trade-offs between FGRPAE and comprehensive ecosystem services (CES) rose by 76.12% between 2010 and 2020. A nonlinear enhancement relationship was identified between FGRPAE and CES. However, CES gains plateau when FGRPAE exceeds approximately 50%. This study shifts the analytical focus from restoration intensity to restoration efficiency, demonstrating that neglecting spatial trade-offs between FGRPAE and ESs may compromise the overall effectiveness of ecological restoration. Accordingly, we propose an optimized spatial configuration for restoration planning that emphasizes the integrated consideration of forest and grassland restoration potential and ecosystem service functions under resource constraints. The proposed framework supports the transition of ecological engineering from “area expansion” to “function enhancement,” offering actionable policy guidance for optimizing restoration strategies within ecological carrying capacity limits.